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Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking

Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking
Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use an economic calendar
  • How to read the calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Rates decisions
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking

Introduction

Knowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.

Why use an economic calendar

The economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.

https://preview.redd.it/20xdiq6gq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd47186db1039be7df4d7ad6782de36da48f1db
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.

https://preview.redd.it/u17iwbhiq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=98ea8ed154c9468cb62037668c38e7387f2435af
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.

Reading the economic calendar


Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.

https://preview.redd.it/lmx0q9qoq4k51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6e9e1533b1ba236e51296de8db3be55dfa78ba1

Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.

Event importance

How do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.

Knowing what's priced in

Next to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
  • Actual refers to the number as it is released.
  • Forecast refers to the consensus estimate from analysts.
  • Previous is what it was last time.
We are going to look at this in a bit more detail later but what you care about is when numbers are better or worse than expected. Whether a number is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ really does not matter much. Yes, really.

Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events

This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.

An example of pricing in

For example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?

On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Surveys

It can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting

Interest rates decisions

We know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.

See the link for a demo

This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.

Second order thinking

You have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
Howard Marks
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
Howard Marks
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
Howard Marks
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.

Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.

Coming up in part II

Now that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
Hope you enjoyed this note. As always, please reply with any questions/feedback - it is fun to hear from you.
***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two

Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two
So yesterday I created the first part to the 'post' Today I'll continue it.
All markets, equities, cars, widgets, groceries, bonds and even forex are driven by volume. Without volume there is no movement as it's the market maker to entice the trader to aggressively buy or sell based upon their sentiments of direction.
So let's first put into perspective market sentiment and what it is for this posts purpose.
Sentiment is the psychological pressure of trader expectations in movement. It's visible through intermarket analysis and even some indexes when the indexes are properly cross referenced. But sentiment is visible even when candles stop their climb or when buying pressure supports the prices on an attempt to move lower. What comes after sentiment builds it's pressure is the path of least resistance and that's really what the markets are doing. Following the path of least resistance with volume as the rivers boundaries.
Volume in foreign exchange is real.
Retail traders think that because the market is decentralized that volume isn't available. Well, the broker you connect to, and the prime broker or bank that they connect to, they source their pricing with risk management modules by analyzing aggregated volume. Aggregation is a grouping of FX liquidity streams (that all include volume levels) into one hub of liquidity housed inside a limit order book. Volume is not made available to you though. It's the playground of the banks and if you're going to have access to a tool that allows the masses to dilute their returns do you think they would let you have it freely? Nope! They would though lobby for laws (Dodd-Frank, FIFO etc etc come to mind here) they all make it more difficult for you to trade!!!! Opacity!!! But volume is very real, it only needs proper aggregation!
So how do we find valuable opportunities when studying the charts? First off, if you study the charts alone you're doing yourself a great disservice! EURUSD in any time frame is just a representation of a relationship between two currencies. You need to study the value of the underlying currencies!
What that provides you is precision entries. Let's call the entry on Candle 12 (an arbitrary number). On candle 12 you see USDCHF spike higher, that would indicate that EURUSD is going to drop 96% of the time! Oh a little insight! So you take a position short EURUSD on candle 12 in expectation that the relationship between the two currencies is going to go lower because of the strength in the Dollar.
But remember, exchange rate fluctuation is the path of least resistance. So at the point where you have found your entry short in EURUSD, there is the opposite consideration. What if I am wrong? What it if goes the other way? At what price would it show me the opposite direction and how long do I have to wait to confirm a reversal? Candle 12 is magical. It tells you what you need. You see, in ALL instances, extremes high or lows of charts are seen by changes in what's called bid/ask bounce. When bid ask bounce is breached it's giving you sentiment, volume and price all shifting directions. If candle 12 is the candle short, then the high immediately prior to candle 12 is your reversal point!
I guarantee you this is the intersection of buyers and sellers, and when one defeats the other the market changes direction. This is true for all of the entries here, if price reversed before it reached a profitable exit then the reverse would in fact be at the opposite extreme prior to the entry candle.
So we go back and visit the adage buy low/sell high but what happens in between? Proper analysis is an active participation. And just as your analysis says you should buy or sell, your analysis should also tell you how the market is reacting in the middle. If there's no change or breach in bid/ask bounce the trend is still moving.
In the attached chart. When an entry signal is confirmed, the immediate high or low prior to that entry becomes the exact reversal point. (I have circled them in yellow) In most of the opportunities shown that stop loss is a mere 2.2 pips away from the entry price and there are no reversals that were required and all signals were profitably identified. No I did not trade them, this is live analysis that runs continually. Of all the signals there is ONE blue X in the center region of the chart that almost gave a sell signal but price pressures remained in tact and thus bullish. The analysis identifies over 100 pips in movement within a range of 35 pips overall. And none of it with lagging analysis.
With proper analysis, you can maximize your returns by comprehensively understanding all market conditions. You'll minimize your losing trades to negligible frequencies, your gains will be maximized and you'll see precisely how the market moves, turns, breathes and follows the path of least resistance.
Now my purpose here is to develop market transparency for the little guy. Sure my posts attract trolls because the trolls have been burned by their own trading ignorance. So they attack those that strive for and deliver something better, in fact most of them don't know how to trade to save their life and that's their anger. I could show you a few of them who have had accounts with companies I advise or am principal of - but there are privacy rights to respect. Do I do this free? On here of course. Is it a business? I've spent over a million dollars in just research, but when I experienced how expensive it was to obtain true transparency I knew there were benefits to providing this information to retail traders.
https://preview.redd.it/367rn2d6p3s51.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e99e1604a078b6aa0916f32be91ce16bc5196320
submitted by iTradeSocial to u/iTradeSocial [link] [comments]

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Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

FOREX Strategies

What are FOREX Strategies?
https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of ​​the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX Strategies

You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Upward trend
  3. Distribution
  4. Downward trend
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex Strategies

There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.

The Carry Trade

The central idea of ​​Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
  1. By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
  2. With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
  3. With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
  4. One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%)
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.

What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?

The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...

Styles of Investments in FOREX

The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.

Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments

One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.

Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style

Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.

The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX

If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.

Finally…

To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
  • Capital
  • Time available each day
  • Level of Experience
  • Personality
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination.
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...

Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit

The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.

Reaction!

Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.

Macroeconomic Data

The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.

The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis

On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.

FOREX Market Correlation

The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.

Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation

In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.

FOREX Commodity Correlation

In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.

Forex Technical Analysis Reddit

The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.

The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis

Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.

The Price Cycle

Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
  • Accumulation
  • Bullish trend
  • Distribution
  • Bearish trend
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price.
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.

How to Identify Trends?

Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
  • Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
  • Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
  • Floor Range: equal highs and varied lows
  • Ceiling Range: equal minimums and varied maximums
https://preview.redd.it/vvmsshf0guv51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c321679a7dcc03f7184778be86379ef442fddf91
Some key points from the graph:
  • The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
  • The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
  • The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
  • The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .

The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses

The central idea of ​​technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd

Forex Charts Analysis

I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.

Japanese Candles

Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
  • The Price: structure and dynamics
  • Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
  • Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner.
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

I've been thinking a lot about my own trading and have come to some harsh conclusions. It's time we discuss some hard truths about technical analysis, mechanical trading, and psychology I think many of us don't want to accept.

I've had a rough week and it sounds like I'm not the only one. This week has wiped out my gains since July 1st, and I'm finding myself ever-so-slightly in the hole this month so far. I've made money every other month I've traded, so I'm not writing myself off as a failure, but nevertheless, I've done some digging to try and figure out what I'm struggling with. I hope the following observations about my own trading resonate with some of you and can help us all become better traders.
First off: Fundamental/technical analysis. Since I started with forex a few years ago, I've put 100% of my time and effort into studying technicals. I think many traders, myself included, are drawn to technical analysis because we fall into the trap of thinking "If I just figure out what combination of indicators/chart patterns/algorithms work for me, trading will be smooth sailing." Being able to take a formulaic approach is incredibly appealing because it's much easier to simply check off a list of criteria than it is to interpret more nuanced information. For me, I found success drawing supply and demand zones, using Bollinger Bands to visualize market structure, and confirming reversal patterns with stochastics to trade from one zone to the next. I even studied the math behind those indicators to make sure I fully understood how they worked so I could identify their limitations, and for the most part, the strategy made money. Nevertheless, if I had a dollar for every time I take what I think is a perfect setup, then the market takes me on a wacky-ass ride of unexpected "crazy bullshit" that stops me out, I wouldn't be trading for a living. After some introspection, my conclusion is that those moments are not "crazy bullshit", but rather are the results of factors that fall outside of the (actually very narrow) scope of technical analysis. This has been hard to accept, as I previously learned technical analysis was perfectly viable as a sole perspective. I was taught that the market can be predicted based on analyzing past behavior. It seems obvious now, but when I think about it, no combination of chart patterns or indicators can predict next week's unemployment figures, interest rates, or what announcements (or blunders) world leaders are going to make on the global stage. Technicals work, but they only work when the market is reacting to fundamental factors, and as soon as a new fundamental change comes along, every bit of technical analysis used until that point becomes obsolete. What I'm trying to say is, at the very least, I need to be able to understand when, why, and how the game is going to change if my technicals are going to serve me. As such, I need to stop shirking fundamental analysis. It's time I start paying attention to that economic calendar and put in the effort to learn what each event means and how to interpret the results to figure out how the market will react. It's simply not as easy as looking at the technicals. It should be obvious that there's no magic formula to trading, but many of us try hard to avoid coming to terms with the fact that there's a lot more to "analysis" than just price action, risk management, and indicators.
The problem is we as traders want trading to be easy. It's a career that society glorifies, and even if we tell ourselves we know it's not a get-rich-quick scheme, we still want to "figure it out" so we can spend a few hours a week scribbling on our charts and making simple black and white decisions while we kick back and "live comfortably". And so we try to trick ourselves into thinking it is easy by endlessly parroting mantras like "Risk management is all that matters" and "Trading is 100% psychology" and "All you need to do is find the strategy that works for you and stick to it." The first two are certainly pieces of the puzzle, but there's so much more to the big picture.
The last mantra isn't even remotely true, and brings me to my second point, which thankfully is something I figured out early in my career, but it's too related to the previous topic to not mention: Mechanical strategies. The sentiment that you need to clearly define a precise, detailed strategy and always stick to it is another lie to make trading seem simpler than it really is. Even when I was just starting to demo trade, I was finding trades that would tick all the boxes outlined by my strategy, but my gut would hesitate. Long after I identified that problem, I also began to notice that I'd be forcing myself to hold onto trades, even if they were not moving as fast or far as I initially thought they would. Once I decided to leave room for my own instinct and discretion, I became much more successful. It's important to understand your strategy is a set of rules you yourself made up. If your strategy does not line up with your own professional opinion of the situation based on your personal experiences and observations, you need to find out why. Yes, you absolutely should draw on your past experiences and be consistent in how you examine the market, how much you risk, and what tools you use, but give yourself enough credit to form your own opinions. The market is not consistent. Do not expect to succeed by applying one cookie-cutter set of rules to different currencies, at different times, during different events. Long-term success in any other line of work is dependent on critical thinking and the ability to adapt to an ever-changing world, and forex is no different. It's not simple, it's not easy, and you will have to make difficult decisions.
This wound up being longer than I anticipated, so thanks for reading. I'm eager to hear everyone's thoughts on these topics, so please share them.
submitted by TheFOREXplorer to Forex [link] [comments]

How to handle multiple perspectives?

I think having the ability to see things from multiple perspectives can be an asset but there are times where I'm just overwhelmed by seeing things from different angles.
I'm a 23F architect and a forex trader, so this is usually my thinking process:
Over the years of refining my ideas, solutions, etc., I've been with a lot of mentors and I've gained a lot of infos and perspectives from different sources.
I have no problem in understanding new concepts continuously.
But right now, since multiple perspectives are compiling as I grow older, I'm having trouble on deciding which perspective/solutions to use in my current projects or dilemmas in life.
It's like the more I see the different angles of a problem, the more I see different solutions.
So I'm left with a lot of solutions / approaches to a single problem in a complex problem.
I think having the ability to see things from multiple perspectives can be an asset but there are times where I'm just overwhelmed by seeing things from different angles.
I've explored different extremities in life (eg. becoming very aggressive then very patient, doing hard work then smart work, having a very complex lense then a simple lense to view a problem) and right now I'm confused of which tools to use, the ratio between the dualities and the overall balance.
One concrete example:
I'm fairly new to reddit so I'm sorry if this is vague and I'm not sure if I expressed it clearly.
Thanks in advance for the insights.
Edited the whole thing since the previous version is so vague :)
submitted by michaelnugget to intj [link] [comments]

The Best (free) Multi time-frame Utility/Tool for MT4 to date

The Best (free) Multi time-frame Utility/Tool for MT4 to date
Disclaimer: I am not the creator nor am i promoting this tool for any personal gain whatsoever. This is a 100% free tool that can be downloaded from the web. I am not posting here to bring attention to myself or any other website regardless of context. I'm merely sharing this utility with the intention of helping new traders and veteran traders alike. I read the subreddit rules and it's prohibited to share links to blogs, youtube, and social media; nor can we post promotional marketing activity (promotions to generate sales). Since this post doesn't directly fall into those categories this post should hopefully be okay .
Hello fellow traders,
I'd like to make a quick post to share with you guys one of my absolute favorite MT4 tools in regards to multi time-frame analysis. I cant tell you how much this tool has helped me, especially when i was a new trader years ago trying to analyze various currency pairs. So i know this will help all of you as well.
I'm sure many of you guys have asked yourself or wondered which currency pairs are the best to trade at any particular time. Well this mt4 dashboard should help steer you in the right direction when analyzing the market and add an extra level of confirmation and market sentiment to your strategy. What is does is measure price distance from moving averages and mimics the functionality of a currency strength meter on steroids. (I personally use it to find the the strongest and weakest currencies and trade those). This dashboard is fully customization in regards to time frame, MA method, price and length.
To be safe i don't want to leave a link adding reason for mods to remove this post. Its called MaDash and can be found with a quick browser search (keywords "MaDash forex"). Remember, this is free and has always been free so if anyone is trying to charge for this then your're not at the right place. Anyway, i hope you all find this tool as beneficial to your trading repertoire as i have.
Happy Trading!
Screenshot of this dashboard for reference.
https://preview.redd.it/y40fl0qmmrz41.png?width=1552&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7470825ca2f227d030281fda16abc1b62b0ddbb

https://preview.redd.it/g72hmpn9vrz41.png?width=842&format=png&auto=webp&s=734aaf79a756c35ed9f0cb1d44cc20ca0680f87c
submitted by GareBearthetrader to Forex [link] [comments]

What is Forex?

Forex is the short way of saying “Foreign Exchange”. This means the global market for exchanging international currencies, also known as the FX market. When someone prices or exchanges a currency against another, the exchange rate is best on the particular forex trading pair (i.e., both currencies involved in the pair).
Currency pairs are typically priced out to four decimal places, depending on the currency denomination, where one ten-thousandth of a unit of currency is known as a pip (i.e., 0.0001 unit), which is the smallest price increment (in addition to fractional-pips).
The EUUSD, which is the most widely-traded forex pair, is an example of the Euro (EUR) currency against the US dollars (USD) currency.
When trading one unit of EUUSD, you can calculate the price in USD (i.e., a price of EUUSD 1.3000 indicates $1.30 per euro). Conversely, when exchanging the USD/EUR, each unit of USD (i.e. each dollar) will have the prace of a specific number of euros (i.e., a USD/EUR price of 0.7700 indicates €0.77 per dollar).
A speculator expecting the price of the EUUSD to go up. He will buy the EUUSD pair long (buying a pair to open a trade can be a bullish or long position). Whereas, a speculator anticipating a drop in the price of the EUUSD may sell the pair. (bearish or short position: selling to open a trade).

Largest international market Globally

The forex market is decentralized across the globe. It consists of dealers such as central banks, private and public banks, non-bank intermediaries, brokerages, and large corporations such as insurance giants and other participants engaged in international finance.
The Foreign Exchange market is the largest globally, with nearly $6 trillion in average daily volume traded as of April 2019, according to the latest BIS Triennial Survey of Central Banks.
The FX market suffers the influence mainly by each government’s monetary policy, the supply, and demand of the global economy. As well as international trade agreements, and users and suppliers of currencies (hedgers), in addition to speculators.

Market integrity and progress

While there have been cases of forex market manipulation by the biggest banks and dealers in the past, the amount of influence any one entity can have on the prices of major currencies is negligible. This resistance to serious manipulation risk is due to the enormous amount of trading and resulting liquidity available.
The FX Market itself has high price integrity. Because it is an electronic market, efficient and with a certain size. Participants must still adhere to best practices.
Efforts such as the Global FX code were launched to encourage forex dealers to uphold the best-execution where the best price available is given to traders.
These efforts are why the spreads and trading commissions continued to improve over the years, as the FX market evolved. In addition, regulators have competed to increase local market integrity and efficiency by creating more strict regulations. These come from the top-tier financial centers such as the US, UK, Singapore, Japan, Australia, among other advanced economies.

Investing and trading in the forex market

As an asset class, Forex is well-established and offered by many regulated brokerages from within a margin account.
The use of leverage is what makes forex trading more risky than non-margin investing.
Margin-based trading used by investors as well as self-directed traders and fund managers, thanks to the range of risk-management tools available within forex trading platforms (mobile, web, and desktop software). Wiseinvest provides trading signals with risk-management.

Forex market research and analysis

There are two primary ways for traders to assess and identify trading opportunities in the forex market.

Advanced forex trading strategies and algorithms

The foundation of successful trading in the forex market is having a trading strategy. It’s based on a specific methodology that best suits your trading needs. Strategies could be manual, automated, or a combination of both.
Over the past decade, there has been a proliferation of automated trading strategies made available for retail traders.
And while there are many serious traders with established track records for their trading systems, there are many more low-quality trading systems falsely marketed as high-quality by overly eager affiliates, making it harder for investors to navigate the market for trading signals.
There has also been an increase in the social copy trade. Where an operator can mimic other operators’ businesses in real time.
Whether using a copy-trading platform or an automated trading system, in almost all cases, this type of investing is considered self-directed and doesn’t require a power-of-attorney or another third-party money manager to handle your account.
Unlike other copy and social trading platforms, Wiseinvet’s AI has the ability to execute a huge set of market data. It does by combining technical and fundamental analysis. This strategy can increase the accuracy of trading signals.

Self-directed forex investors

Compared to investing in a managed fund, there is greater responsibility. Traders put it on self-directed traders who use trading systems. A self-directed trader should conduct more detailed due diligence. It can avoid falling for the countless low-quality trading systems that exist on the internet.

There are no guarantees that a strategy will perform well. But conducting proper due diligence can help traders assess various trading systems. They consider using them to aid their trading or investment strategy.
submitted by Wiseinvest-ai to u/Wiseinvest-ai [link] [comments]

Why Genesis Vision (GVT) Should Be on Your Watch-List

In light of the recent shills regarding GVT, I thought it would be the perfect time to give some of you a quick look on what GVT is and why it has been getting so much attention as of late. As a disclaimer, I am invested in GVT and I would like to also point out that although I am fairly active on the GVT sub reddit, I have not shilled it whatsoever on /r crypto. I mention this because I know there will be those that say "oh great, another shill post/comment" and had I been trying to shill, I would be all over this sub spamming people about it. I will try to make this post as unbiased as possible. In return, I simply ask that any FUD, and shills as well, include some substance so that we may have a nice discussion.

What is Genesis Vision?

Genesis Vision, from the site, is "the first platform for the private trust management market, built on Blockchain technology and Smart Contracts". Simply put, they are creating an easy-to-use app where people who do not know how to invest their money can give it to someone who does on a trustless platform. Think of it like a trust-less brokerage firm that is backed by blockchain technology and smart contracts. From the white-paper, there are 3 types of people on the platform:
The final GVT platform will have the forex, stock and crypto market all integrated onto one app. GVT's alpha release on April 1st will only include the forex market. Q4 of this year will then integrate crypto for their beta release. Finally, on their final product release, stocks will be added.

How is the platform trust-less?

First ask yourself this, why can people trust traditional brokers with their money? They can't. Who's not to say any given broker won't run away or make awful investments and lose your money? The only thing people like you and me can go off of when investing with any given broker is their track record - and that’s something that could be tampered with too. How long has this person/brokerage firm been in the market? How reliable are they? Stuff like this isn't going to be an issue on Genesis Vision. The time a person has been investing on the platform is all public on the blockchain. Every good investment and every bad investment will be publicly listed. Smart contracts will ensure that no manager can close shop and run with your money. At the end of the trading period, funds are released to the original investor and the manager is given a cut - all safely and securely using smart contracts. This completely eliminates the trust factor as everyone will simply base investments on a manager’s track record.

How does it work?

On the platform, each manager will have their own token. You invest into said manager by buying their token. The manager can then utilize the various markets available to invest and hopefully grow your money. Managers will have levels that are based on their ability to make consistent and reliable gains. The lowest level a manager can be is level 1 while the highest is 7. Your level basically determines how much money you can handle - the max level being able to handle roughly $1m. New people can apply to become a manager after they have developed a track record by trading a minimum of $1,000 over a given period of time.

How GVT is creating its own ecosystem.

To make it easier to understand how the platform will work, ask yourself how the current crypto market works. No matter how many trades you do or what coins you hold, the end goal is to have your portfolio be worth more satoshis/gwei than what you started with. You can either hold BTC, OR you can invest in various altcoins in hopes that it will grow faster than BTC. The reason people research low cap “undiscovered” cryptos is to hopefully catch a rocketship before it takes off. Times have since changed, but everything used to have to go through BTC. Buying alts? Exchange from BTC. Selling alts? Exchange to BTC. BTC falls, everyone falls. BTC grows, everyone grows (sometimes). Some alts will fall harder than BTC, and some won't. Some alts will grow faster than BTC and some won't. Because of BTC's dominance over the market, it is why many crypto veterans hold a big portion of their portfolio in BTC and why they often recommend it to others.
This is akin to how the GVT platform will work. GVT is BTC and the managers on the platform are the altcoins. You could either hold GVT or put it into a manager that will hopefully get you better returns. Much like how people right now look for “undervalued” and “undiscovered” altcoins, there will be talks and similar conversation about undiscovered managers with potential. Now remember, this is how it’s going to be for the intermediate to advanced people, but for newer or more busy people, GVT can become a fantastic tool for side-income.
The platform’s main goal is mass adoption. People like me and you would be more inclined to simply hold GVT since we’d be able to spot out good short, mid and long holds ourselves. Also, since as the platform grows, the coin itself will naturally grow with it. However, what GVT is aiming to do is build a platform similar to Robinhood. Just like how they made investing in stocks - and now cryptos - more appealing and easier to all audiences (especially younger ones), GVT is trying to do this but with a broker-like app instead. Also, keep in mind I’m just talking about crypto. The platform is going to utilize the forex market and the stock market as well.
The takeaway of all this is that because GVT will have its own platform where you can buy/sell GVT straight off of, down the line GVT could possibly part ways with Bitcoin and in a sense create its own ecosystem where GVT is the driving force of its own market.

Why invest with a manager?

So now, I’m again talking exclusively crypto (since I’m not the most knowledgeable on the forex/stock market), but why would any of us want to invest with a manager? Technical analysis and day-trading is an incredibly taboo subject on this subreddit, but that’s because people don’t understand that TA is a tool. It’s not a fact that it’s going to pan out exactly as it’s written and there are many different things to look at when doing technical analysis on a chart. Any investment in this market is speculation and TA is very useful with helping you make educated guesses for the short, mid and long term. With that said, there are some really good day-traders out there. I’m not sure how this subreddits sentiment is towards Philakone (an exclusive day trader on twitteyoutube/steemit), but the dude makes a good amount of consistent money on a daily basis, whether it be a bull or bear market, and keeps his followers up to date by the minute - for free. Imagine if he were to get on the GVT platform and instead of people trying to copy/paste or follow what he does on Twitter, they can just give him money on the GV platform and have him do the work? Down the line if he becomes a level 7 manager and as a result is given a cut of the $1m he is allowed to work with, the literal TON of money he’d be making would certainly appeal to others looking to do the same. They would no doubt have their eyes on GVT and from there, the platform’s growth would be exponential once more and more managebrokers hop on.
I’m not saying that this is exactly how everything will turn out, but still imagine being able to make money in a bear market? And aside from that, there is the forex and stock market to utilize and if any of us ever become serious investors, it would important not to just diversify in crypto, but in different markets altogether and being familiar with GVT would greatly help. Again, this is purely talk on the potential of the platform so take it with a grain of salt and DYOR!

Some thoughts + moonboy talk

Okay this is going to be pure moon-talk since I know that’s what drives most of you. To start, the team is most familiar with the forex market - which has a LOT of money in it - and that is what they will be implementing first on their Alpha launch on April 1st. Crypto implementation in Q4 2018 on beta release and then stock implementation in Q1 2019 on the full release.
Remember that REAL adoption comes when people are using applications built on the blockchain without knowing - something GVT will be doing. Look at Steemit. It is the most active blockchain by far - beating out Ethereum AND Bitcoin ( http://blocktivity.info ). Why? Because it’s smooth and functions like a normal website, despite its use of blockchain technology. I’m not saying GVT will automatically shoot up to the top, but actual use is what will determine any crypto’s success and Genesis Vision is looking like a really solid candidate right now.
On top of this, GVT’s CBDO (Chief Business Development Officer) was the founder of tools4brokers ( http://www.t4b.com ) so they have someone on the team with experience with a successful and working product. I’m not going to take a deep-dive on the rest of the team, but I highly suggest checking out the roadmap and the team (all but a few have linkdin profiles).
Now for the money. First, do NOT be fooled about GVT’s USD price. The price is so high because its token supply is very limited. It is roughly 1/6th the supply of Bitcoin’s meaning we would just have to get to 1/6th of Bitcoin’s market cap (around $25b) in order for 1 GVT to equal 1 BTC. It’s a stretch, sure, but it’s more possible than you think. To put it plain and simple, the forex, stock and crypto market altogether amount to upwards of almost $100 trillion.
GVT is a $100m market cap crypto trying to disrupt a $100 trillion~ industry with an easy-to-use, innovative and game-changing app
  • .001% of this market = $1 billion market cap (1,000% gains from now)
  • .01% of this market = $10 billion market cap (10,000% gains from now)
  • .1% of this market = $100 billion market cap (100,000% gains from now)
Huge disclaimer that just because we could reach these numbers, does not necessarily mean we will, but I see no reason why can’t hit a billion or even 10 down the line.

Conclusion

That’s pretty much it from me. Genesis Vision is a project I, and many others, are extremely excited about. It has a lot going for itself and with such a low market cap, it’s definitely something to at least throw on your watch- list. Hopefully this post didn’t come off as too much of a shill (aside from the last portion) and instead opened some people up to why GVT isn’t just “another shitcoin”. If I missed anything, don't be afraid to chip in! And I’d also be more than happy to try and answer any questions some of you may have but I simply ask that you take a look at the white-paper ( https://genesis.vision/white-paper-eng.pdf ) first as it is very user-friendly and would answer some of your questions better than I could.
Links
Website: https://genesis.vision/
Whitepaper: https://genesis.vision/white-paper-eng.pdf
submitted by DKill77x to genesisvision [link] [comments]

Turing Technology completes second funding round

Turing Technology, developer of financial and market analysis software for traders and financial institutions, has completed a second round of funding with investment backing from FPF Capital, a venture capital fund.
“Turing Technology is a unique proposition for investors because its fintech solutions combine the best of business, technology and scientific excellence. Turing’s team brings artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, linguistics and big data analysis expertise to provide real-world trading solutions across all markets including cryptocurrencies, commodities and forex,” says Filip Korbel, Turing Technology CEO.
Earlier this year, Turing Technology developed CryptoMood, an AI market data analysis tool for cryptocurrency traders.
CryptoMood provides cryptocurrency market data and sentiment analysis by monitoring social media and over 50,000 news sources, and by tracking digital currency whale wallet movements in real time.
The solution is set to become commercially available during Q3 of 2019, both as a mobile application for retail traders and as a business interface for cryptocurrency exchanges and brokerages.
The new investment will enable Turing Technology to develop new projects and trading tools, including: Algo Studio, a platform that creates trading algorithms for commodity and foreign exchange markets; and MT Pro, a software that provides advanced statistics functionality to help traders create sound trading strategies.
As well as developing new solutions, Turing Technology is also expanding its global presence. It recently opened a new office in Prague and has a new Dublin office planned for Q4 of 2019.
* More Details Here
submitted by sa007sammy to BankingInfo [link] [comments]

Bitcoin price forecast, using BCG matrix

Bitcoin price forecast, using BCG matrix
BTCUSD analysis: Bitcoin forecast

Experimental analysis of BTCUSD trends by means of Boston Consulting Group matrix

Telegram channel — trading signals btc, eth, xrp
Today, I’ll go on to analyze the BTCUSD pair, as all the other altcoins depend on it.
A couple of days ago, there was quite and important fundamental event that was hardly responded by the crypto market. It is about the G20 meeting that was held in Argentina.
One of the most important agenda items was digital economy. As you know, they were discussing cryptocurrencies and the future of the crypto market. Following up on this meeting there was drafted a declaration. At first sight, it doesn’t seem to present any sensational solutions. However, the leaders of G-20 member-countries have admitted that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has a huge potential and its development is important for global economy. On the other hand, they have again emphasized the officials’ concern about poor regulation of the cryptocurrency market. Here, a particular emphasis is put on the risks, associated with money laundering and the development of illegal markets, as well as terrorist financing.
What does it mean?
It is a good signal for alarmists, who have been already disappointed in cryptocurrencies and dumped their deposits. Nobody will ruin the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies, as a type of investment assets will always exist in one form or another. What’s the point in killing the goose that lays golden eggs?! The hype around the crypto market turned into investors those, who had never thought about investing in any assets. Economic participation of people has sharply increased. There appeared whole industrial sector that became almost national idea for particular countries. It is far easier to legalize cryptocurrency and impose taxation, rather than to fight with the products of digital economy. The Group of 20 were discussing the issue of developing a taxation system for international digital services. It means only one thing - one way or another, the whole cryptocurrency market will be split into two parts; the first one will be completely transparent not only for users but for public authorities as well. There will be institutional investors and banks, along with corporations. There, the cryptocurrency will be completely integrated into banking services and become publicly available and user-friendly. Everything will be legalized and regulated. The second part will become a part of shadow economy and will be under continuous pressure from regulators and governmental authorities. The users of such cryptocurrencies will be automatically recognized as financiers of terrorism and accomplices in money laundering. The users of such cryptocurrencies will face potential imprisonment and international prosecution.
Even if it sounds unreal now, but if the G-20 are seriously discussing the cryptocurrency matter, I’m sure that the country leaders will join their efforts to bring this scenario into reality. So, I won’t be surprised if, in a few years, there will be another bitcoin fork that will be recognized by the Group of 20, included into gold and forex reserve and will become a new payment means; and the old bitcoin will become illegal and will be traded secretly.
But now, it is still an assumption and won’t come true in the new future.
I’d like to perform technical analysis of the current bitcoin market sentiment to find out what is going to be in the near future.
https://preview.redd.it/7jfpz6euou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed0798ef8938d6da6be3e33392b32d20054fa5b2
In my previous analysis a week ago, I offered a long-term forecast for the next 10 months, suggesting the major target at 2000 USD to be reached around October, 2019.
I still believe that the bottom at 2000 USD looks quite justified, in terms of both fundamental and technical analysis.
This scenario can be real in fact, if bitcoin will be moving in the downward channel with a corridor of about 3000 USD. Previously, BTC could be moving faster in a few days, but in the current crypto market situation, such a narrow range looks reasonable. However, Bitcoin has never moved as it was expected by the majority of traders.
I compared in detail the current market situation with the Bitcoin drop in 2014 and noticed some regularities that I emphasized in the last forecast for bitcoin future price.

https://preview.redd.it/ut5jhcpvou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1f0582387490922b0b9aebd34a93a8cc7703948
If you look closer, you’ll see from the chart above that the bullish trend had been speeding up since August, 2014, and reached its peak in December.
I wouldn’t try to fit this into particular dates or months, but if I try to draw a direct parallel with the Bitcoin current fall, it should start falling faster.

https://preview.redd.it/rlixmzkwou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6086ecddee8770675fdc62dafb726f544e15bad
To better explain my idea, I suggest you look at the chart above.
Many of you are likely to be familiar with the BCG matrix, is a corporate planning tool created by Boston Consulting Group. Long story short, the matrix describes the life-cycle of a product and its position in the market.
I won’t describe it in detail here. I just had an idea to analyze the price trend like a product. A trend is traded in the market like an idea, and each trader votes for it by means of their money, supporting or opposing the idea.
Based on this assumption, a trend, like a product, will pass through four stages:
  1. Entering the market - “Problem child”
  2. Developing stage - “Star”
  3. Developed stage - “Cash cow”
  4. Recession - “Poor dog”
The stage of problem child (also known as “question mark”) is the initial step. The product is just entering the market, but consumers don’t trust it, and so, it needs a large amount of investments. I marked this stage with the yellow circle in the chart above. There are two big dumps. The financial supporters of the drop were investing quite much in their bearish trend, but the buyers didn’t trust that idea and didn’t support it. Next, the product has been accepted by buyers, whose market share was quite high in the market, as well as the rate of sales, starting next. There, comes the stage of growth, the Star!
In the given example, it is the green box that highlights the zone of the steady bearish trend. It was accepted and admitted by the market, and everybody supports the idea of Bitcoin drop. Everybody likes it and thumbs it up. The next stage is the developed stage, or Cash cow. That is when investors begin to gain the yield from their product and the investment is paying off. It the blue circle in the chart above. There, it is clear that manipulators are starting to buy out and get the cheap biotin, making up their funds spent on dumps.
A sure sign of this stage is incredibly high trade volumes.
The last stage is recession, or Poor dog. Such a dog is weak and won’t live for long. The product at this stage is not appealing or demanded. Interpreting this idea, there is a clear red circle in the chart above. Market participants don’t believe in the bearish trend any longer and don’t support the idea by their money. The funders are not interested in promoting this idea as its development costs exceed the potential profit, or it may at all generate negative cash return.
Therefore, the Bitcoin bearish trend, like a product, is leaving the market, being replaced by a different idea.
https://preview.redd.it/ppki39lxou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=1edcc6d841c3d623a78ac615323620868e52a605
Drawing the same parallel with the ongoing bearish trend, you see that the Problem child stage has been already finished. Due to the strong bearish trend, this stage was lasting for a particularly long time, despite the price drop from 20 000 USD down to 6000 USD. The candlesticks clearly display strong volatility and the buyers’ resistance.
Eventually, following the long fight, market gave up and the bearish entered the stage of Star. It is clear that, due to the longtime resisting, the bulls stepped back, having lost quite much; and each crypto market participant believed in the bearish idea. The stage was developing very fast, and so, it ended quite soon. And it is clear that the BTCUSD downtrend trend is entering the Cash cow stage now.
As I’ve already said, at this stage, manipulators take an advantage of the market inertia and start “milking” the cow, as the marketing specialists call it; traders would say, trick out of hamsters’ money.
https://preview.redd.it/abdwsiizou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa8f3648a3f2a1f755f42f6e2d2deb7c640cab95
It is clear from the 15-minute BTCUSD price chart above that there are frequent buyouts; that is investors are gaining profits from the invested cash. Currently, while weak hands are losing their positions, the whales are buying out cheap bitcoins. It will go on until it becomes clear that the idea of the Bitcoin drop has been finished, and the bears don't have any more power to press the market down.
Most likely, at this stage, manipulators will repeat the same trick and start selling the bitcoins, they’ve already bought, to create stronger panic. People are extremely nervous, and so, manipulators won’t have to dump much.
https://preview.redd.it/itl4gyr0pu221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c6943a6a2bd554f1e9e7b44db7fb599c9abe263
If you gain look at the monthly BTCUSD price chart above, you see that the next wave is likely to start in February, 2019. Based on the depth of the plunge, the level at 2000 USD is such an irresistible barrier, which many will start from. I assume that manipulators anticipate this situation and will make their final buyout not going as low as this level. In the volume profile chart, it will look like a hump that I outlined by the red ark. After that, the bearish trend will start exhausting, amid trading flat and weak attempts to draw the price up to 4000 USD. The Bitcoin downtrend will enter the stage of Poor dog.

https://preview.redd.it/n8lplvt1pu221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=955ff6e177191986710e731e2c5158de87b115ac
This period will be dangerous because of extremely low trade volumes, allowing the manipulators to perform various tricks and attempts to crash the market in order to buy more bitcoins at the lowest price level. There is likely to be another slide down before the bearish trend of 2018-2019 will finally end. The final drop is likely to be followed by a new idea, supporting the BTCUSD growth.
The whole cycle will start from the beginning. First, funders will heat the market up, selling the idea to hamsters. Next, supported by the market natural growth, they will launch the rocket up rather high, where they’ll start gaining cash. But that is another story; it is called Bitcoin uptrend of 2019-20??
Unfortunately, the manipulators haven’t yet finished developing their bearish trend, and we’ll have to wait.
That is my updated BTCUSD global scenario.
I wish you good luck and good profits!

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submitted by Nick_Kiros to u/Nick_Kiros [link] [comments]

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?
Businesses devise a billion ways of wooing customers, every day. If a chatbot can be a useful accomplice toward that end, why not give it a try? Afterall, who wouldn’t want a tool that can hold an intelligent conversation with customers, make them feel comfortable and bind them to your business.
Is it possible?
Recall that memorable scene from the award winning 2003 film, Lost in Translation, where an aging American actor, Bob Harris (played by Bill Murray), is on a set in Tokyo to shoot a whiskey commercial. The director, Yutaka Tadokoro, begins instructing Bob in Japanese, and the slapdash interpreter fails to capture the meaning—namely, it gets lost in translation. The process bogs down, and the commercial is a disaster.
You don’t want human-to-computer interactions to end up that way, right? But one-way communications prove to be too exasperating to users. People give up on trying to get a machine understand their intentions in a few clicks and presses. There’s that missing vibe, that interactive component in any human-computer engagement; and it’s the main reason a vast majority feels they must adapt to the technologies they use, rather than technology adapting to them.
https://preview.redd.it/mzxagl6zwrd11.jpg?width=220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49da6f90e91dc9686b28c337b159b74c7f6dd3bf
Enter 2018, and we have artificial intelligence (AI)-driven chatbots that are revolutionizing human-computer interactions just the way the humans want it. Chatbots today are more adaptive to the way people speak and mimic their emotions to the nearest binary. 2018 is paving the way for a great chatbot innovation.
Meanwhile, developers are working tirelessly to bring in new consumer experiences to market. For example, once WhatsApp opens to bots next year, it will unlock direct access to over one billion new users. Chatbots are continuing to push the envelope of new technology further.
To reckon with, a chatbot isn’t an additional handle on your website or a fancy add-on. It’s the need of the hour for every business that’s flourishing or aspires to flourish. In a market that’s fiercely competitive, customers expect to receive accurate information quickly enough to make a decision. As a business owner, you need to cater to that need. If you don’t have funds to recruit more people to answer all the questions customers throw at you, then deploying a smart chatbot can rescue your business in that case.
https://preview.redd.it/vpuz6mb1xrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=f615929b9f190e38afe38c3d59ba084dbfc9747b
But then intelligence also matters as it determines the kind of tasks or conversations your chatbot can handle. Needless to say, if you have a clear set of activities preconceived in your mind, you can build awesome customized bots.
Let’s take you through a short read about 5 important things that can make a chatbot intelligent.
1. Bots need to understand human conversations:
The bot needs to be quick and intelligent enough to understand the context of the conversation happening in real time. It’s about sense and sensibility, in conversations.
Normal human conversations are replete with instances of switching over context while talking, while at work - resuming a task, discarding the current task and switching to a newer one, or in general hold a task while the other is being executed and work on follow on. Human conversations tend to switch between contexts and variables (intents and entities), often combining multiple things into one.
Sample this response to a flight booking bot for example, "My Destination? San Francisco. But how's the weather over there?"
What should be the bot’s response here - capture the entity and continue booking or check the weather before that?
In this case, chatbots need to
  • have context switching abilities to handle interruptions smartly and provide full control to developers in defining the experience
  • capture unattended interruptions from a conversation flow and keep them accessible
  • be equipped with human conversations and have the ability to hold and resume a dialog for a certain amount of time and execute the tasks in sequential order, and especially while understanding human emotions
You may argue that a bot is after all a machine and cannot absorb emotions, but all said and done, it also depends partly on how much capability you build into it. So, it must be clever enough to filter the feelings of the customer. The bot needs to understand, analyze and respond based on the human emotion. For instance, if a customer messages an online shopping portal saying, “Your service is amazing, the delivery of items are always 2 to 3 days delayed”, none can miss the biting sarcasm intended in the statement. But if the bot isn’t developed to cater to this sort of sentiment, it may end up answering in a horribly awry manner.
https://preview.redd.it/a3p88148xrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=f589d16a1d1407018f26c460404a69def2a4cf52
Intelligent bots will have: Sentiment analysis, context switching, hold and resume feature.
2. Standardization and uniformity in bot utterances
It’s important to remember that a chatbot must give vibes closest to humans as much as possible. The way humans carry the stamp of their personality and style, bots too need to be enabled to do that. When asked about something, a bot must respond in a particular way and pattern that sounds like a human. This warms the usecustomer and makes him feel at ease during the conversation with a chatbot.
“You must have direct connection with your customers as part of your brand’s identity, even more than your website that doesn’t seem to have an identity, this will have a personality.”- William Meisel
Thus, chatbots need to
  • understand and remember the user context - make all user information available in a single location and accessible
  • store the user profile with information like first name, last name and make it accessible to all the systems for the convenience of the user.
  • remember what a specific user talks to a specific bot, in an enterprise scenario it needs to keep certain features such as prompt for ‘Password length’ / ‘folder for HR information, constant for all the employees in the enterprise
It’s important for a chatbot to keep a current task which is being executed in an active mode and store information.
As a corollary, customers appreciate and connect with the support executives (call support executives/shopping store helpers) who can remember their preferences, can validate their purchases, help them with more information on products, and basically give importance to them while attending to their queries. For example, in a Forex platform the currency against each country is maintained constant across all systems for everyone to access. The platform tends to store the first and last name of the customer, their last transaction and their payment options.
Chatbots now have the responsibility to standardize their understanding of a customer and respond to them accordingly, whether in the manner of communicating or the speed with which they resolve their query. Chatbots need to converse with customers to extract this information and keep up to their pace.
https://preview.redd.it/flps4l6bxrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=dee88672cef176ed92778e962a9029543ee6cbd9
Intelligent bots will have features like: Small talk, Bot user session, Enterprise context, User context and User session
3. Making the complex conversation sound simple
Chatbots are expected to break the complex structures of conversations into simpler tones and bring to a logical conclusion. Here’s where ‘Artificial Intelligence’ comes into play. Among the many types of chatbots, the most common ones are task specific that cater to a specific job, with pre-loaded answers and information. These type of chatbots have the ability to gather data from the internet, previous company database and other sources. Therefore, these bots are able to reply to diverse queries.
The intelligent bots, in addition, have the potential to mold the conversation the way the customer wants and guide him towards a specific solution. In an office setup, it’s common for a conversation like, “Hey Lisa, set up a meeting with Phani if he’s free”, to be handled between a Boss and Secretary. To enable that, the chatbot needs to first look up the calendar of ‘Phani’, find a suitable time for a meeting in sync with the Boss’s schedule and then reschedule the meeting. Chatbots thus need to break up complex sounding conversation into simpler nuances and then execute the task sequentially and logically.
Intelligent bots can also break down the conversation to its essence and action items. Let’s look at a very common scenario: ‘Customer tries to book tickets for 14th August, confirms on the choice of airlines, origin and destination and navigates to the next page, but feels that the pricing is very high. The customer then asks the bot to check for ‘15th August instead’. Here, based on the situation, the chatbot is acting and will be able to display the new prices by changing the date of journey.
https://preview.redd.it/bzfoasiexrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=67d134343093daf3d239c9bcfd0b315fb687d333
Intelligent bots will have features like: Amend Entities, Planning.
4. Adapting to human utterances
In the context of human–computer communication, forming assumptions about what a system can do and understand is problematic for most people. In turn, forming assumptions about how users will “talk to” the system is also likely to be problematic for system developers. The potential for variability in how users will communicate with a system is enormous and has been dubbed “The Vocabulary Problem.”
An intelligent chatbot can not only handle queries smartly and remembers them through the session, but also learns new things with every conversation that happens, saves them and uses them appropriately for future instances.
In a human conversation and especially over voice, there are bound to be
  • expectation of elaboration or confirmation (“can you hear me?”, “I do not follow”)
  • request for repeat of sentences (“ I’m sorry I couldn’t hear that, can you please repeat it again?” “Sorry, can you repeat?”)
  • pauses (“can you please hold? [pause] thank you!”)
  • interruptions (“the number is 212-” “sorry can you start over?” )
The simplest thing to do when writing responses to command and inquiry utterances in a conversational UI is to get straight to the point: respond with facts. That’ll remove a lot of the ambiguity and simplify the dialogue.
It’s up to the intelligent chatbot to adapt to the way the human responds - with the referential context (or) pauses (or) specific context (or) synonyms (or) repetition (or) abbreviations (or) variations in dialect. The chatbot needs to map it pre-contextually. But like their human counterparts, chatbots’ conversational skills determine whether they earn you seamless, scalable transactions or just another horde of pissed-off customers. This needs a lot of training by the chatbot to help continue the conversations to the logical ending.
https://preview.redd.it/u5g63jovxrd11.jpg?width=1581&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f394c933c28c1079cf290156de09f285b2054d1
Intelligent bots will have features like: Sync, Repeat, Interruptions and Pauses.
5. When bots are kept simple
Although AI chatbots’ task is complicated and they need to be built up that way, yet the effort should be made to keep it simple. They need to be comprehensive yet detailed. A customer initiating a conversation with a chatbot might already be troubled due to some poor service related issue, hence it’s better not to irk him further with complex interaction. The bot should be answering the already irked usecustomer in a most precise way possible without confusing the person further. It’s easy to figure out if you are talking to a bot or a human. Make sure the customer knows that they are talking to a bot by welcoming them with some sort of welcome message. Nobody likes being told the same thing over and over again, so why do chatbots keep doing it? Bots should detect when they’re about to repeat a previously given answer and switch strategies. If the answer didn’t resolve the user’s needs before, repeating it certainly won’t either. From the user interface, to the dialog flow the experience should be pleasant, and information given to the user needs to be valuable and crisp.
Twitter also provides the option to give your bot a custom name for different sections of the bot, which can be of use. It’s important to show what the chatbot is capable of doing with Quick Replies. The customer needs to be a guided stepwise within the conversation and with enough accessible options to choose from.
Lastly, there must always be a way to end the conversation with the bot and switch to a human agent. Many bots today include a Quick Reply to “Speak to an Agent”. Certain actions, such as open-ended visual search, are challenging to complete in a messaging environment. In those situations, bots can route to a website or app to help the user complete goals they couldn’t execute within the context of chat.
https://preview.redd.it/gc1j3z4sxrd11.jpg?width=578&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=331b9de9fcfa0c26ddf34eeb93783e909ecab6cf
Intelligent bots will have features like: Simple UI, Simpler steps, Agent Handoff
In a nutshell, a chatbot must be programmed to not just provide optimum solutions to problems, but also converse with customers in an engaging manner. The interaction must be exciting and the bot must appear to be curious enough to answer all queries. People prefer lively interactions and a chatbot needs to meet that expectation.
https://preview.redd.it/erd22jzpxrd11.jpg?width=1505&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d83e0de6283b47b1210a912d26e23dd8023d3afc
For example, there are bots aligned with online shopping portals that can actually sense your liking and disliking. They can cancel orders for you accordingly and order the stuff that you actually want. Businesses are now moving way ahead than what anyone had ever thought of earlier. If we have an amazing concept like messenger or Kore.aiBots Platform, then why not use them to the full extent. Their proficiency in collecting massive data in a short period of time can be used to forecast upcoming business. You know it better how to get edgy with this interesting concept. The more you experiment with chatbots, the more you would get to know the wonders you can create with these little machines.
Some of the Global 2,000 companies and large enterprises are using Kore.ai Bots Platform to build their chatbots. How about you?
To get everything you need to build and deploy intelligent, enterprise-grade chatbots — without unnecessary complexity, click on Build your first BOT.
To ask questions, get tips, learn and grow with Kore.AI developer community, click on Ask questions on Developer Community.
Also Read on : Chatbots (of) the Future
Thank You
Phani Marupaka
LinkedIn| Tweet at : @phani_teja
submitted by PhaniTeja4 to u/PhaniTeja4 [link] [comments]

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?
Businesses devise a billion ways of wooing customers, every day. If a chatbot can be a useful accomplice toward that end, why not give it a try? Afterall, who wouldn’t want a tool that can hold an intelligent conversation with customers, make them feel comfortable and bind them to your business.
Is it possible?
Recall that memorable scene from the award winning 2003 film, Lost in Translation, where an aging American actor, Bob Harris (played by Bill Murray), is on a set in Tokyo to shoot a whiskey commercial. The director, Yutaka Tadokoro, begins instructing Bob in Japanese, and the slapdash interpreter fails to capture the meaning—namely, it gets lost in translation. The process bogs down, and the commercial is a disaster.
https://preview.redd.it/6vqwiux3urd11.jpg?width=220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd5151869d3e932a32f56fc969406633cd3ba623
You don’t want human-to-computer interactions to end up that way, right? But one-way communications prove to be too exasperating to users. People give up on trying to get a machine understand their intentions in a few clicks and presses. There’s that missing vibe, that interactive component in any human-computer engagement; and it’s the main reason a vast majority feels they must adapt to the technologies they use, rather than technology adapting to them.
Enter 2018, and we have artificial intelligence (AI)-driven chatbots that are revolutionizing human-computer interactions just the way the humans want it. Chatbots today are more adaptive to the way people speak and mimic their emotions to the nearest binary. 2018 is paving the way for a great chatbot innovation.
https://preview.redd.it/27twgl16urd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2a83408e1f5a9495428fff1f4cc0414d30b8d84
Meanwhile, developers are working tirelessly to bring in new consumer experiences to market. For example, once WhatsApp opens to bots next year, it will unlock direct access to over one billion new users. Chatbots are continuing to push the envelope of new technology further.
To reckon with, a chatbot isn’t an additional handle on your website or a fancy add-on. It’s the need of the hour for every business that’s flourishing or aspires to flourish. In a market that’s fiercely competitive, customers expect to receive accurate information quickly enough to make a decision. As a business owner, you need to cater to that need. If you don’t have funds to recruit more people to answer all the questions customers throw at you, then deploying a smart chatbot can rescue your business in that case.
But then intelligence also matters as it determines the kind of tasks or conversations your chatbot can handle. Needless to say, if you have a clear set of activities preconceived in your mind, you can build awesome customized bots.
Let’s take you through a short read about 5 important things that can make a chatbot intelligent.
1. Bots need to understand human conversations:
The bot needs to be quick and intelligent enough to understand the context of the conversation happening in real time. It’s about sense and sensibility, in conversations.
Normal human conversations are replete with instances of switching over context while talking, while at work - resuming a task, discarding the current task and switching to a newer one, or in general hold a task while the other is being executed and work on follow on. Human conversations tend to switch between contexts and variables (intents and entities), often combining multiple things into one.
Sample this response to a flight booking bot for example, "My Destination? San Francisco. But how's the weather over there?"
What should be the bot’s response here - capture the entity and continue booking or check the weather before that?
In this case, chatbots need to
  • have context switching abilities to handle interruptions smartly and provide full control to developers in defining the experience
  • capture unattended interruptions from a conversation flow and keep them accessible
  • be equipped with human conversations and have the ability to hold and resume a dialog for a certain amount of time and execute the tasks in sequential order, and especially while understanding human emotions
You may argue that a bot is after all a machine and cannot absorb emotions, but all said and done, it also depends partly on how much capability you build into it. So, it must be clever enough to filter the feelings of the customer. The bot needs to understand, analyze and respond based on the human emotion. For instance, if a customer messages an online shopping portal saying, “Your service is amazing, the delivery of items are always 2 to 3 days delayed”, none can miss the biting sarcasm intended in the statement. But if the bot isn’t developed to cater to this sort of sentiment, it may end up answering in a horribly awry manner.
Intelligent bots will have: Sentiment analysis, context switching, hold and resume feature.
2. Standardization and uniformity in bot utterances
It’s important to remember that a chatbot must give vibes closest to humans as much as possible. The way humans carry the stamp of their personality and style, bots too need to be enabled to do that. When asked about something, a bot must respond in a particular way and pattern that sounds like a human. This warms the usecustomer and makes him feel at ease during the conversation with a chatbot.
“You must have direct connection with your customers as part of your brand’s identity, even more than your website that doesn’t seem to have an identity, this will have a personality.”- William Meisel
Thus, chatbots need to
  • understand and remember the user context - make all user information available in a single location and accessible
  • store the user profile with information like first name, last name and make it accessible to all the systems for the convenience of the user.
  • remember what a specific user talks to a specific bot, in an enterprise scenario it needs to keep certain features such as prompt for ‘Password length’ / ‘folder for HR information, constant for all the employees in the enterprise
It’s important for a chatbot to keep a current task which is being executed in an active mode and store information.
As a corollary, customers appreciate and connect with the support executives (call support executives/shopping store helpers) who can remember their preferences, can validate their purchases, help them with more information on products, and basically give importance to them while attending to their queries. For example, in a Forex platform the currency against each country is maintained constant across all systems for everyone to access. The platform tends to store the first and last name of the customer, their last transaction and their payment options.
Chatbots now have the responsibility to standardize their understanding of a customer and respond to them accordingly, whether in the manner of communicating or the speed with which they resolve their query. Chatbots need to converse with customers to extract this information and keep up to their pace.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Small talk, Bot user session, Enterprise context, User context and User session
3. Making the complex conversation sound simple
Chatbots are expected to break the complex structures of conversations into simpler tones and bring to a logical conclusion. Here’s where ‘Artificial Intelligence’ comes into play. Among the many types of chatbots, the most common ones are task specific that cater to a specific job, with pre-loaded answers and information. These type of chatbots have the ability to gather data from the internet, previous company database and other sources. Therefore, these bots are able to reply to diverse queries.
The intelligent bots, in addition, have the potential to mold the conversation the way the customer wants and guide him towards a specific solution. In an office setup, it’s common for a conversation like, “Hey Lisa, set up a meeting with Phani if he’s free”, to be handled between a Boss and Secretary. To enable that, the chatbot needs to first look up the calendar of ‘Phani’, find a suitable time for a meeting in sync with the Boss’s schedule and then reschedule the meeting. Chatbots thus need to break up complex sounding conversation into simpler nuances and then execute the task sequentially and logically.
Intelligent bots can also break down the conversation to its essence and action items. Let’s look at a very common scenario: ‘Customer tries to book tickets for 14th August, confirms on the choice of airlines, origin and destination and navigates to the next page, but feels that the pricing is very high. The customer then asks the bot to check for ‘15th August instead’. Here, based on the situation, the chatbot is acting and will be able to display the new prices by changing the date of journey.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Amend Entities, Planning.
4. Adapting to human utterances
In the context of human–computer communication, forming assumptions about what a system can do and understand is problematic for most people. In turn, forming assumptions about how users will “talk to” the system is also likely to be problematic for system developers. The potential for variability in how users will communicate with a system is enormous and has been dubbed “The Vocabulary Problem.”
An intelligent chatbot can not only handle queries smartly and remembers them through the session, but also learns new things with every conversation that happens, saves them and uses them appropriately for future instances.
In a human conversation and especially over voice, there are bound to be
  • expectation of elaboration or confirmation (“can you hear me?”, “I do not follow”)
  • request for repeat of sentences (“ I’m sorry I couldn’t hear that, can you please repeat it again?” “Sorry, can you repeat?”)
  • pauses (“can you please hold? [pause] thank you!”)
  • interruptions (“the number is 212-” “sorry can you start over?” )
The simplest thing to do when writing responses to command and inquiry utterances in a conversational UI is to get straight to the point: respond with facts. That’ll remove a lot of the ambiguity and simplify the dialogue.
It’s up to the intelligent chatbot to adapt to the way the human responds - with the referential context (or) pauses (or) specific context (or) synonyms (or) repetition (or) abbreviations (or) variations in dialect. The chatbot needs to map it pre-contextually. But like their human counterparts, chatbots’ conversational skills determine whether they earn you seamless, scalable transactions or just another horde of pissed-off customers. This needs a lot of training by the chatbot to help continue the conversations to the logical ending.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Sync, Repeat, Interruptions and Pauses.
📷
5. When bots are kept simple
Although AI chatbots’ task is complicated and they need to be built up that way, yet the effort should be made to keep it simple. They need to be comprehensive yet detailed. A customer initiating a conversation with a chatbot might already be troubled due to some poor service related issue, hence it’s better not to irk him further with complex interaction. The bot should be answering the already irked usecustomer in a most precise way possible without confusing the person further. It’s easy to figure out if you are talking to a bot or a human. Make sure the customer knows that they are talking to a bot by welcoming them with some sort of welcome message. Nobody likes being told the same thing over and over again, so why do chatbots keep doing it? Bots should detect when they’re about to repeat a previously given answer and switch strategies. If the answer didn’t resolve the user’s needs before, repeating it certainly won’t either. From the user interface, to the dialog flow the experience should be pleasant, and information given to the user needs to be valuable and crisp.
Twitter also provides the option to give your bot a custom name for different sections of the bot, which can be of use. It’s important to show what the chatbot is capable of doing with Quick Replies. The customer needs to be a guided stepwise within the conversation and with enough accessible options to choose from.
Lastly, there must always be a way to end the conversation with the bot and switch to a human agent. Many bots today include a Quick Reply to “Speak to an Agent”. Certain actions, such as open-ended visual search, are challenging to complete in a messaging environment. In those situations, bots can route to a website or app to help the user complete goals they couldn’t execute within the context of chat.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Simple UI, Simpler steps, Agent Handoff
In a nutshell, a chatbot must be programmed to not just provide optimum solutions to problems, but also converse with customers in an engaging manner. The interaction must be exciting and the bot must appear to be curious enough to answer all queries. People prefer lively interactions and a chatbot needs to meet that expectation.
https://preview.redd.it/ri36kv7aurd11.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8d3f5a1bab5b31dc3617f4bb7645e88bf70f836
For example, there are bots aligned with online shopping portals that can actually sense your liking and disliking. They can cancel orders for you accordingly and order the stuff that you actually want. Businesses are now moving way ahead than what anyone had ever thought of earlier. If we have an amazing concept like messenger or Kore.aiBots Platform, then why not use them to the full extent. Their proficiency in collecting massive data in a short period of time can be used to forecast upcoming business. You know it better how to get edgy with this interesting concept. The more you experiment with chatbots, the more you would get to know the wonders you can create with these little machines.
Some of the Global 2,000 companies and large enterprises are using Kore.ai Bots Platform to build their chatbots. How about you?
To get everything you need to build and deploy intelligent, enterprise-grade chatbots — without unnecessary complexity, click on Build your first BOT.
To ask questions, get tips, learn and grow with Kore.AI developer community, click on Ask questions on Developer Community.
Also Read on : Chatbots (of) the Future
Thank You
Phani Marupaka
LinkedIn| Tweet at : @phani_teja
submitted by PhaniTeja4 to Chatbots [link] [comments]

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Forex Sentiment Analysis Learn a Strategy Pro Traders Use

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